:Product: 0809RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Aug 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (10 Aug, 11 Aug, 12 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 443 km/s at 08/2155Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (10 Aug, 11 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (12 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Aug 070
Predicted   10 Aug-12 Aug 070/069/069
90 Day Mean        09 Aug 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug  005/005-006/005-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/25