:Product: 0819RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Aug 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (20 Aug, 21 Aug, 22 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 499 km/s at 19/0015Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at
19/1808Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
19/1638Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 18287 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (20 Aug, 21 Aug)
and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Aug 067
Predicted   20 Aug-22 Aug 067/067/067
90 Day Mean        19 Aug 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug  011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug  016/020-014/018-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    50/50/40