:Product: 0825RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Aug 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Aug, 27 Aug, 28 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 463 km/s at 25/1304Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 25/2028Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
25/2028Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1929 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Aug) and quiet levels on
days two and three (27 Aug, 28 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Aug 072
Predicted   26 Aug-28 Aug 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        25 Aug 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug  009/010-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    40/20/20