:Product: 0826RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Aug 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (27 Aug, 28
Aug) and expected to be very low on day three (29 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 553 km/s at 26/1838Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 26/1227Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 26/0231Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 5893 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Aug 071
Predicted   27 Aug-29 Aug 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        26 Aug 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug  012/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug  046/078
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug  013/016-006/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/25
Minor Storm           20/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    50/30/30