:Product: 0829RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Aug 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug, 01 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 586 km/s at 29/0319Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 97634 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Aug 071
Predicted   30 Aug-01 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        29 Aug 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/15