:Product: 0908RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Sep 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep, 11 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 442 km/s at 07/2118Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 08/0730Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
08/1525Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1086 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (09 Sep), quiet to active levels on day
two (10 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (11 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Sep 069
Predicted   09 Sep-11 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        08 Sep 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep  006/005-011/012-017/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/30
Minor Storm           01/20/35
Major-severe storm    01/05/25
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    20/55/80