:Product: 0909RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Sep 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (10 Sep, 11 Sep, 12 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 436 km/s at 08/2114Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
09/1259Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
09/1551Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 898 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Sep), unsettled to major
storm levels on day two (11 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (12 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Sep 068
Predicted   10 Sep-12 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        09 Sep 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep  011/012-023/035-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/35
Minor Storm           25/35/30
Major-severe storm    10/25/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor Storm           25/15/20
Major-severe storm    65/80/70