:Product: 0911RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Sep 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (12 Sep, 13
Sep) and expected to be very low on day three (14 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 623 km/s at 11/1825Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 10/2142Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 10/2135Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 366 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (12 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Sep 069
Predicted   12 Sep-14 Sep 070/070/069
90 Day Mean        11 Sep 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep  015/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep  028/043
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep  012/016-011/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/55/45