:Product: 0913RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Sep 13 2320 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Sep, 15 Sep, 16 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 584 km/s at 13/1903Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 13/1012Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
13/1349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4910 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (14 Sep,
15 Sep, 16 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Sep 070
Predicted   14 Sep-16 Sep 070/068/068
90 Day Mean        13 Sep 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep  010/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep  009/008-008/008-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/35