:Product: 0914RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Sep 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 655 km/s at 14/2050Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 13/2337Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 14/0139Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 42518 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Sep 069
Predicted   15 Sep-17 Sep 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        14 Sep 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep  017/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  007/010-013/016-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/40/35