:Product: 0918RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Sep 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep, 21 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 561 km/s at 17/2218Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 18/1112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
18/0515Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 10052 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep, 21
Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Sep 068
Predicted   19 Sep-21 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        18 Sep 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Sep  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep  006/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20