:Product: 0925RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Sep 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 444 km/s at 25/0627Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 25/1457Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
25/1050Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6137 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Sep) and quiet levels
on days two and three (27 Sep, 28 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Sep 068
Predicted   26 Sep-28 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        25 Sep 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep  007/008-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/15/15