:Product: 0928RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Sep 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. 
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 440 km/s at 28/0315Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 27/2120Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
28/0022Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3457 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (29 Sep, 30 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on day three (01 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Sep 069
Predicted   29 Sep-01 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        28 Sep 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct  006/005-006/005-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/35
Minor Storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    15/15/45