:Product: 1013RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Oct 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s at 13/2056Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 13/1806Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 13/1524Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 35256 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (14 Oct), quiet to
active levels on day two (15 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (16
Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Oct 072
Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct 072/071/070
90 Day Mean        13 Oct 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct  012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  014/030-010/012-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/20/10
Minor Storm           25/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    60/25/20