:Product: 1109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Nov 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 477 km/s at 08/2120Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 09/2039Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
09/1547Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4753 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (10 Nov) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Nov 069
Predicted   10 Nov-12 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        09 Nov 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov  012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov  009/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  015/020-014/015-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor Storm           25/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    60/45/45