:Product: 1208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Dec 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec, 11 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 610 km/s at 08/2054Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 08/0644Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
08/0716Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 551 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Dec), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (10 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (11 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Dec 071
Predicted   09 Dec-11 Dec 070/068/068
90 Day Mean        08 Dec 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec  010/012-009/010-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           30/25/15
Major-severe storm    25/20/15