:Product: 1213RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Dec 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Dec, 15 Dec, 16 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 452 km/s at 13/0216Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
13/1625Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
13/1620Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2256 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (14 Dec, 15 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (16 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Dec 070
Predicted   14 Dec-16 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        13 Dec 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec  005/005-006/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           15/15/30
Major-severe storm    15/15/25