:Product: 1217RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Dec 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec, 20 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 441 km/s at 17/1213Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
17/0645Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
17/1029Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1200 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (18 Dec, 20 Dec) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (19 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Dec 070
Predicted   18 Dec-20 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        17 Dec 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec  006/005-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/10
Minor Storm           01/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           15/25/20
Major-severe storm    15/25/20