:Product: 1223RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Dec 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec, 26 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 372 km/s at 22/2130Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 383 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Dec) and quiet levels
on days two and three (25 Dec, 26 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Dec 070
Predicted   24 Dec-26 Dec 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        23 Dec 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec  003/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec  007/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/10/10