:Product: 1228RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2018 Dec 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (29 Dec, 30 Dec, 31 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 645 km/s at 28/1959Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 28/0508Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 28/0606Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Dec 069
Predicted   29 Dec-31 Dec 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        28 Dec 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec  005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec  020/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec  015/015-010/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/25/20