:Product: 0301RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Mar 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar, 04 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 624 km/s at 01/2028Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 01/0911Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 01/0935Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 27886 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Mar 070
Predicted   02 Mar-04 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        01 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb  017/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar  019/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar  013/015-011/012-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    40/25/15