:Product: 0302RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Mar 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar, 05 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 603 km/s at 01/2240Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 02/0405Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
02/0338Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 62290 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (03 Mar, 04 Mar)
and quiet levels on day three (05 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Mar 069
Predicted   03 Mar-05 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        02 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar  018/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar  011/012-010/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/15/15