:Product: 0305RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Mar 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (06
Mar, 07 Mar, 08 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 450 km/s at 05/1114Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
05/1238Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
04/2236Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 14432 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (06 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (07 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (08 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Mar 072
Predicted   06 Mar-08 Mar 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        05 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar  006/005-007/010-011/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/30
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    10/20/30