:Product: 0306RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Mar 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 65 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07
Mar, 08 Mar, 09 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 504 km/s at 06/1044Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 06/0822Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
06/0518Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 14710 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (07 Mar, 09
Mar) and quiet to active levels on day two (08 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Mar 073
Predicted   07 Mar-09 Mar 073/073/073
90 Day Mean        06 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  007/010-009/012-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/25
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/30/25