:Product: 0325RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Mar 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 84 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (26 Mar, 27 Mar, 28 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 347 km/s at 25/0742Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
24/2353Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/0117Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1146 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Mar) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (27 Mar, 28 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Mar 071
Predicted   26 Mar-28 Mar 071/070/068
90 Day Mean        25 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar  008/008-010/014-013/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/35
Minor Storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/55/55