:Product: 0329RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Mar 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 88 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar, 01 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 533 km/s at 28/2153Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 28/2108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/0711Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 465 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (30 Mar,
31 Mar, 01 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Mar 069
Predicted   30 Mar-01 Apr 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        29 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr  008/008-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/30/30