:Product: 0401RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Apr 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 91 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr, 04 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 426 km/s at 31/2337Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 01/0741Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
01/0738Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 122 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (02 Apr,
03 Apr, 04 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Apr 069
Predicted   02 Apr-04 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        01 Apr 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr  007/008-008/010-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/30/30