:Product: 0413RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Apr 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14
Apr, 15 Apr, 16 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 464 km/s at 13/0252Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 12/2325Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
12/2252Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4636 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Apr, 15 Apr, 16
Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Apr 078
Predicted   14 Apr-16 Apr 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        13 Apr 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/20