:Product: 0418RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Apr 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Apr 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
Apr, 20 Apr, 21 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 481 km/s at 18/1728Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
18/0933Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
18/1738Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 733 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Apr, 20 Apr, 21
Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Apr-21 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Apr 075
Predicted   19 Apr-21 Apr 075/070/070
90 Day Mean        18 Apr 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Apr  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Apr  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Apr-21 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/15