:Product: 0422RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Apr 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr, 25 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 407 km/s at 22/1925Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
22/0406Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/0533Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 211 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (24 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (25 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Apr 069
Predicted   23 Apr-25 Apr 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        22 Apr 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  005/005-007/008-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/25
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           15/20/30
Major-severe storm    15/20/30