:Product: 0426RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Apr 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (27 Apr, 28 Apr, 29 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 427 km/s at 26/0006Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
26/1915Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
26/1915Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 109 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (27 Apr,
28 Apr, 29 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Apr-29 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Apr 067
Predicted   27 Apr-29 Apr 067/067/067
90 Day Mean        26 Apr 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Apr  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Apr  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr  008/008-009/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr-29 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/25/25