:Product: 0428RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Apr 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Apr 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (29 Apr, 30 Apr, 01 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 398 km/s at 28/2043Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
27/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
27/2102Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (29 Apr,
30 Apr, 01 May).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Apr-01 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Apr 068
Predicted   29 Apr-01 May 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        28 Apr 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Apr  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Apr  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Apr-01 May  008/008-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Apr-01 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/25