:Product: 0902RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Sep 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 769 km/s at 01/2354Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 01/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 01/2255Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 61291 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Sep) and quiet levels on
days two and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Sep 069
Predicted   03 Sep-05 Sep 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        02 Sep 067

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep  033/049
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep  019/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep  009/010-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    40/20/20