:Product: 0903RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Sep 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep, 06 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 730 km/s at 03/0651Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 03/2012Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
02/2113Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 73718 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (04 Sep, 06
Sep) and quiet levels on day two (05 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Sep 069
Predicted   04 Sep-06 Sep 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        03 Sep 067

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep  019/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep  008/005-005/005-008/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    25/20/25