:Product: 0904RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Sep 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Sep, 06 Sep, 07 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 674 km/s at 04/1700Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 04/1439Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
04/1418Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 87889 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (05 Sep,
06 Sep, 07 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Sep 069
Predicted   05 Sep-07 Sep 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        04 Sep 067

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep  007/008-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/25/20