:Product: 0905RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Sep 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep, 08 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 590 km/s at 05/0612Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 05/0602Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
05/0314Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 60084 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (06 Sep,
07 Sep, 08 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Sep 068
Predicted   06 Sep-08 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        05 Sep 067

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep  015/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep  008/010-007/008-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/25/20