:Product: 0906RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Sep 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep, 09 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 582 km/s at 06/0415Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 06/0856Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
06/0245Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 16364 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (07 Sep, 08 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (09 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Sep 069
Predicted   07 Sep-09 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        06 Sep 067

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep  007/008-009/008-004/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    15/15/10