:Product: 0914RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Sep 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 512 km/s at 13/2118Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3102 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (15 Sep,
16 Sep, 17 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Sep 069
Predicted   15 Sep-17 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        14 Sep 067

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  006/006-006/006-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/20