:Product: 0918RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Sep 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep, 21 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 474 km/s at 18/0041Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 17/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
17/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1091 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep, 21
Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Sep 066
Predicted   19 Sep-21 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        18 Sep 067

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Sep  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep  005/005-004/005-004/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10