:Product: 0921RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Sep 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Sep, 23 Sep, 24 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 373 km/s at 21/0645Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 21/0604Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
21/0717Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 954 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Sep), quiet to active levels on day
two (23 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Sep 068
Predicted   22 Sep-24 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        21 Sep 068

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Sep  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep  005/005-010/012-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/25/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/30/25
Major-severe storm    10/30/25