:Product: 0924RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Sep 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 495 km/s at 24/1855Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 24/1654Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
24/1547Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Sep), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (26 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(27 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Sep 067
Predicted   25 Sep-27 Sep 067/067/067
90 Day Mean        24 Sep 067

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  010/012-008/008-013/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/40
Minor Storm           10/05/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/10
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    40/25/65