:Product: 0925RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Sep 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 533 km/s at 25/0228Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
24/2130Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at
25/2010Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Sep), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (27 Sep) and active to major storm levels on day
three (28 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Sep 068
Predicted   26 Sep-28 Sep 067/067/067
90 Day Mean        25 Sep 067

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep  011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep  008/008-016/028-030/045

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor Storm           05/35/40
Major-severe storm    01/20/20
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/05/05
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/65/75