:Product: 0926RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Sep 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (27 Sep, 28 Sep, 29 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 413 km/s at 26/0551Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 25/2312Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
26/0008Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and three (27 Sep, 29
Sep) and active to major storm levels on day two (28 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Sep 067
Predicted   27 Sep-29 Sep 067/067/067
90 Day Mean        26 Sep 067

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep  016/028-030/045-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/35
Minor Storm           35/40/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    65/75/60