:Product: 0927RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Sep 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 722 km/s at 27/2030Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 27/1327Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 27/1323Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 169 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (28 Sep), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (29 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (30 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Sep 066
Predicted   28 Sep-30 Sep 067/067/067
90 Day Mean        27 Sep 067

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep  013/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep  030/045-015/020-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor Storm           40/25/10
Major-severe storm    20/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    75/60/40