:Product: 0928RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Sep 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (29 Sep, 30 Sep, 01 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 713 km/s at 27/2328Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 27/2142Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 28/0433Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 16380 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (29 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (30 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (01 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Sep 067
Predicted   29 Sep-01 Oct 067/067/067
90 Day Mean        28 Sep 067

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep  015/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep  023/032
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct  015/020-010/012-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep-01 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor Storm           25/10/10
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/40/35