:Product: 0929RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Sep 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 646 km/s at 28/2226Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 29/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/2023Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 49260 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (30 Sep,
01 Oct, 02 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Sep 067
Predicted   30 Sep-02 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        29 Sep 067

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep  021/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct  007/010-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/20/20