:Product: 1102RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Nov 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov, 05 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 395 km/s at 02/0718Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2296 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (03 Nov, 04 Nov) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (05 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Nov 071
Predicted   03 Nov-05 Nov 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        02 Nov 068

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov  006/005-006/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/25