:Product: 1103RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Nov 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (04 Nov, 05 Nov, 06 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 808 km/s at 03/0649Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
03/0650Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
02/2129Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2934 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (04 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (05 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Nov 069
Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        03 Nov 068

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  006/005-008/008-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/25
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           15/25/30
Major-severe storm    10/25/30