:Product: 1104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Nov 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 390 km/s at 04/2046Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
04/0614Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
04/0910Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2389 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (05 Nov,
06 Nov, 07 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Nov 071
Predicted   05 Nov-07 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        04 Nov 068

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  008/008-009/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/30/25