:Product: 1110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Nov 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 389 km/s at 09/2152Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 726 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (12 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (13 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Nov 071
Predicted   11 Nov-13 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        10 Nov 068

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  011/015-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/10
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    50/25/10